Forget oil and gas. How water can become a weapon in the US and Israel's war against Iran

Photo: BBC and Getty Image

Predictably, the war is partly built around oil — a resource long associated with Western intervention in the region. But as this war expands and draws neighbours in the Persian Gulf, some analysts argue that another vulnerable resource — water — could become a potential fault line.

The Persian Gulf contains only 2% of the world's renewable freshwater resources and is largely dependent on desalination, especially given the pressure exerted on the region by the growth of the oil industry since the 1950s, and the impact this has had on its limited reserves.

According to the French Institute of International Relations, 90% of Kuwait's water comes from desalination, as well as 86% in Oman, 70% in Saudi Arabia, and 42% in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

"In 2021, the total production volume of desalination plants drawing water from the Persian Gulf exceeded 20 million cubic meters per day — the equivalent of filling 8,000 Olympic swimming pools daily," says Dr. Will Le Qued from the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science in Oman on the BBC's Newsday programme.

Agriculture and food production also depend on desalinated water from the Persian Gulf, as groundwater reserves typically used for irrigation are severely depleted throughout the region. This dependence makes water infrastructure, which both the US and Iran appear ready to exploit, strategically vulnerable.

The strategy of "horizontal escalation"

Analysts describe Tehran's approach as "horizontal escalation," which expands the scope of the conflict rather than directly confronting the US and Israel. Attacks on water infrastructure appear to be part of Iran's strategy, albeit framed as retaliation.

"If Gulf governments believe that water infrastructure is under attack, they are likely to pressure the US to try and stop the war," says Professor Marc Owen Jones from Northwestern University in Qatar. Iran's attacks are aimed at "creating a level of panic" that influences civilians' decision to simply leave the region.

Bahrain has accused Iran of directly striking a desalination plant, while Iran claims that a previous US strike damaged a water treatment facility on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian attacks on Jebel Ali port in Dubai are also believed to have occurred near one of the world's largest desalination plants. There was information about a fire near the Fujairah F1 water supply station and power plant in the UAE, which, according to officials, remains operational. It was also reported that the Doha West power plant in Kuwait also suffered, albeit indirectly, due to attacks on nearby ports or falling drone debris.

"[For Iran] this is more of a signaling game," Professor Kaveh Madani, who heads the UN University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, told the BBC.

Any attack on critical water infrastructure demonstrates Iran's capabilities and how far it is willing to go in response to US and Israeli military actions. But, as Madani suggests, its strength lies in the threat of more prolonged and targeted attacks on the valuable water resources of the Persian Gulf.

Legal intricacies and Iran's vulnerability

Madani points to Article 45 of the Geneva Convention as a possible reason for Tehran's apparent caution and restraint regarding more direct strikes on desalination plants.

"The law says you cannot attack civilian infrastructure, but [Iran] didn't start it. That's what was in [social media post by] Abbas Araghchi," says Madani, quoting Iran's Foreign Minister. Araghchi called the attack on Qeshm Island "a dangerous step with severe consequences... a clear and desperate crime."

Iran is also vulnerable. The country has been approaching "absolute water scarcity" for some time. Low rainfall, breakdowns in old infrastructure, and the war with Israel — all have contributed to the deficit. According to Ahmad Vazifeh from Iran's National Climate Crisis Management Center, dams across the country are already in an "alarming state."

Before the war, water scarcity contributed to internal unrest in Iran, with protests in Khuzestan and Isfahan coupled with widespread complaints about the cost of living. Iran's water issues also intersect with regional tensions: disputes with Afghanistan (Helmand River), Turkey (dams on the Tigris and Euphrates), and Iraq.

This war underscores how vulnerable the Middle East's water systems have become. Environmental pressures now exacerbate the risks of escalation alongside oil and gas. Future conflicts in the region may be defined not only by pipelines but also by rivers and desalination plants. Water in this conflict could be more valuable than oil.

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