Largest Flight Cancellations Since the Pandemic — Military Conflict in the Middle East Caused Chaos in the Sky

A plume of smoke after an Iranian strike against the backdrop of a passenger plane at a closed Dubai airport. March 1, United Arab Emirates. Photo: AP Photo / Altaf Qadri

Following military strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, several countries in the region closed their airspace. Airports of Persian Gulf states and their airlines ceased operations at least until 10:00 GMT (13:00 Minsk time) on Tuesday. The largest transit hubs — Dubai (the world's busiest international hub), Abu Dhabi, and Doha — have been closed for the third consecutive day. Analysts call this the strongest shock to the industry since the pandemic effectively halted international travel.

According to data from analytical company Cirium, at least 1,555 flights to the Middle East were canceled by 10 AM on Monday alone. Experts warn that the actual number could be significantly higher, as data from Iran and the UAE is arriving with delays.

According to FlightAware, approximately 2,800 flights were canceled on Saturday, and over 3,100 on Sunday. Airspace over Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Israel, Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar has effectively emptied – confirmed by Flightradar24 data.

Geography of Chaos

The consequences of the conflict quickly spread beyond the zone of hostilities.

Passengers are stranded worldwide — from Bali to Frankfurt. Air India was forced to cancel flights to Europe and North America, while European carriers such as British Airways and easyJet suspended flights to Cyprus after a drone strike on the British military base Akrotiri.

The situation is complicated by the fact that the conflict has spilled over into Lebanon, where Israel is striking suburbs of Beirut. This makes safe use of previously considered alternative air corridors impossible. Now, pilots and airline crews are scattered across various countries, making the process of future flight recovery an extremely complex logistical quest.

While hundreds of thousands of ordinary passengers try to get any information in overcrowded airports, wealthy travelers are looking for detours. The only "window" from the region remains Saudi Arabia. Private jet brokers report a sharp demand for jets from Riyadh to Europe, with costs reaching $350,000 per flight.

Financial Losses

The region and its airlines have become accustomed to travel disruptions over the past few years, but such a prolonged airspace closure — more than 24 hours — and the cessation of operations at all three major Persian Gulf transit hubs are unprecedented, analysts note.

Shares of Tui, Europe's largest tourism company, fell by 7% at the start of trading. Shares of the world's largest airlines — Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, Qantas, and Singapore Airlines — fell by 5-9%.

However, the main threat to the industry lies in energy prices. Brent crude oil has already risen by 13%, reaching $80 per barrel, and experts predict a rise to $100. This will inevitably lead to higher ticket prices and financial exhaustion for airlines, which had only just begun to recover after the pandemic.

What's Next?

Some flights that are still operating are forced to bypass closed zones. After the start of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, global aviation was already forced to fundamentally change routes. Corridors through Iran and Iraq, which allowed connecting Europe with Asia, began to play an important role.

Now, with these routes also threatened or completely closed, airlines are forced to squeeze into even narrower air corridors. Additional instability is created by tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Analysts warn: the main threat is prolonged destabilization. If the conflict drags on (and Donald Trump has already stated that the military operation could continue for another four weeks), the consequences for global aviation will be long-term. And they will affect not only the passenger segment. The Persian Gulf is a leading crossroads for air cargo, creating additional pressure on trade routes in addition to existing disruptions at sea.

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