Lukashenka Jabs at Outgoing Sarkozy, Unlikely to Befriend Hollande

Lukashenka on French election

The triumph of François Hollande over Nicolas Sarkozy in the French presidential election is unlikely to affect Belarusian-French relations. Hollande won on a promise of better social security.

The new leader is expected to focus on European stability and security and is unlikely to devote much attention to Belarus. France will continue a policy on Belarus in line with the EU’s common approaches.

Minsk is likely to perform a balancing act between Russia and the EU, building its relations with France based on this policy.

Hollande’s election is unlikely to have a significant effect on the relationship between Belarus and the EU, Aliaksandr Lukashenka said on May 8 while answering questions from members of the National Assembly after his annual address to the legislature and the nation on May 8.

“Belarus is probably not a priority for France at present,” he said. “The inertia is very strong. What is Belarus to them? That’s why I don't expect any significant change in this regard.”

He used the occasion to defend his command style of government. “He [Hollande] said right things, which are being implemented in practice in our country,” the Belarusian leader said.

This indicates that France no longer supports market reforms, which the EU is imposing on Belarus, he noted.

“If the French and democrats are so smart, they should have kicked Sarkozy out two or three years ago, when he took money for his election campaign from the Libyan leader,” he claimed. “And he took not €50 million as the media reported during the election campaign in France but, according to Muammar al-Gaddafi, more than €100 million.”

Lukashenka claimed that the Libyan leader had told him about those funds during a visit to Belarus. “He [Sarkozy] took the money but went on to defend himself with such passion,” he said. “That may have been the reason they ruined Libya, violated and liquidated Gaddafi and now try to get rid of all his family to leave no tracks. And that's democracy.”

In the run-off vote on May 6, Hollande defeated conservative incumbent Sarkozy by a margin of 51.62 percent to 48.38 percent.

Political tension

Although top-level government-level contacts have been frozen between Minsk and Paris over allegations of human rights abuses in Belarus, the country’s opposition figures received top-level reception in France.

For instance, opposition politician Aliaksandr Milinkevich met with French President Nicolas Sarkozy on several occasions in 2006 and 2009.

Milinkevich addressed the French parliament, met with high level officials, including Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, and Catherine Colonna, the European affairs minister.

Lukashenka visited France in July 1996 to sign an agreement on mutual understanding and cooperation. But after the 1996 controversial constitutional referendum that gave him sweeping powers, relations between the two countries devolved into a mix of non-communication and misunderstanding. The agreement on mutual understanding and cooperation has not been ratified by the French parliament.

Belarus established top-level contacts with France shortly after gaining independence in 1991. Parliamentary speaker Stanislau Shushkievich, who was the head of state at the time, paid a state visit to Paris in April 1992 just three months after the countries established diplomatic relations.

Official relations remained strained this century with the sides relying on diplomatic channels for communication. The French government has made it clear that it would not change its position toward the Belarusian authorities’ repressive internal policies. But it has offered overt support to pro-democracy groups in Belarus.

In spring 2012, French Ambassador Michel Rainieri left Minsk together with other EU envoys in a diplomatic tit-for-tat that followed an expansion of EU sanctions against Belarus. The French diplomat returned after Minsk softened its anti-Western rhetoric and released two key opposition figures from prison.

Trade

Last year, Belarus sold $100 million worth of goods in France and France sold $430.2 million worth of goods in Belarus.

Belarus exported furniture, crop nutrients, pipes, clothing, casein and metal goods, and imported vehicles, medicines, chemicals and equipment.

In the mid 2000s, Belarus exported petroleum products, mainly diesel fuel, manufacturing equipment, mechanical and optical devices, textiles, clothing, furniture and building materials. It imported chemicals, equipment, cars, plastic goods and food.

Bilateral trade reached a record high of $650 million in 2008.

French businesses are wary of Belarus. In 2010, the French invested just $3.2 million in Belarus with foreign direct investment amounting to $200,000. The investment flow peaked in 2008, reaching $43.3 million with foreign direct investment amounting to $3.8 million.

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