“Opposition Junta in Exile? So Exotic!”

Belarusian opposition — especially those in emigration — has been discussing the need and reasonability of creation a shadow government abroad lately. Ex-Colonel Ukadzimir Karbalievich comments on the idea.

A shadow government is a wide-spread phenomenon of being an alternative to an existing government in today’s world, and only in democracies not. Some consider it would be good to have one in Belarus. However. To become a true political centre a shadow government must be united opposition’s body, its headquarters and mouthpiece.

It must manifest express the ideology of an alternative, what is very important for Belarus now. A shadow government must present reformation programme, a way out of crisis and the strategy of struggle. It must come up with initiatives, policy statements, etc.

Now the EU offers Belarus a new programme: European Dialogue on Modernization. However, the target audience of the project is not very clear. The official authorities disown the programme and opposition is unjointed. And if there were a shadow government, it could become a source of social modernization programme, thus making a ’cult‘ Belarusian issue “who can replace Lukashenka?” irrelevant during the following elections.

A shadow government may be represented abroad, but its presence in Belarus is a must as it can be an alternative to the official government only in this case.

There is an example of such government in Belarus’ contemporary history. The shadow government was formed by Belarusian People’s Front. The National Executive Committee lead by Hienadz Karpienka. However, this government failed to become an influential opposition political centre. It was a formal, document-based organization.

A political party Belarusian Christian Democracy tried to create something of the kind during the presidential elections of 2010, but it looked more like RP-campaign but not serious actions.

If speaking about the examples all over the world, we may say that shadow governments appear only when any other means of political struggle are exhausted.

The situation is different in Belarus. Opposition parties are legal, they have office, they can participate in elections and they can agitate.

That is why the reason to create shadow government is unclear. Theoretically, a shadow government abroad might coordinate and accumulate the international aid for Belarusian democratic community and stay in contact with the EU and the USA authorities. However, this function may be performed only if the shadow government is recognized the legitimate representative of Belarusian opposition abroad. If this condition is not met, it is unclear who is to be represented by a shadow government. Will it represent itself? Then dozens of such bodies can be created in European countries where Belarusian political refugees reside. Still, it has no sense.

Uladzimir Baradach delicately escaped this topic by asserting that all Belarusian opposition is controlled by KGB. By just a single phrase he struck out hundreds of people who have been struggling for freedom under harsh conditions for years.

One more interesting remark is that Mr. Baradach is going to staff his shadow government with military and law enforcement units’ officers. Military government is commonly called junta. But opposition junta abroad… It is so exotic. The world hasn’t faced it before.

Some say that Rada of Belarusian People’s Republic is the government in exile. However, this structure cannot be called a classic example of a shadow government. And it is not even because it wasn’t appointed or elected by opposition. A shadow government, due to its status, must come up with decisions. It must have a programme to implement in case it comes to power. It must have definite programmes on economic, social and foreign issues.

Rada of Belarusian People’s Republic performs other function. It is a historic symbol of the moral authority which legitimacy is deeply rooted in history. Rada BPR tries to use this authority to influence sovereignty when the Belarus’ independence is in danger. It doesn’t want to do more, and it may be right.

The entire buzz around a shadow government in exile is caused by powerlessness, futility and inability to take real actions.

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