Minsk May Make Attractive Offers to Putin

“In the near future Belarus will see landmark developments in its foreign policy, for which it is necessary to prepare,” Aliaksandr Lukashenka told Foreign Minister Siarhej Martynau on May 24. He probably referred a forthcoming visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin, although landmarks can be expected in relations with the EU, Asian and South American nations.

Taking advantage of Kremlin’s interest

Putin made headlines in the Belarusian media with his decision to make his first foreign trip to Belarus on May 31 and June 1 after his election as Russian president. The Russian leader reportedly was also considering a trip to Kazakhstan.

The decision was taken is assign that Putin gives priority to Russia’s resurgence into its former Soviet sphere with Belarus being on top of its agenda.

Lukashenka appears ready to take advantage of Putin’s visit to make some important proposals. In mid May he told Prime Minister Mikhail Miasnikovich to make new suggestions regarding long-term relations with Russia.

“Let it be three to five offers we will be working on that we can suggest to the Russian Federation for… consideration,” the Belarusian leader said.

Belarusian officials’ tricks

What proposals can Minsk make if deeper cooperation in all areas has been laid down in Customs Union, Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) treaties?

Some observers say Lukashenka may offer for sale assets of interest to Russia. However, this does not seem to be an issue to determine long-term relations. Belarusian Deputy Prime Minister Uladzimir Siamashka said recently the two leaders will discuss “a number of other issues,” apart from privatization.

Anyway, Minsk must make very attractive offers to have Moscow turn a blind eye on some actions by Belarus that appear to conflict with EurAsEC agreements.

For instance, Belarusian refineries reportedly have been selling fuel under the guise of solvents and other petrochemical products to avoid paying a petroleum export duty to Russia. In Q1, Belarus exported more than $1 billion worth of solvents.

Moscow is also concerned about Belarus’ Free Economic Zones (FEZs) that seem to undermine the foundation of the Common Economic Zone (CEZ) and the future Eurasian Economic Union. FEZ companies take advantage of tax breaks to flood the Russian market with cheap goods.

Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, member states of the Customs Union, pledged to close down all FEZs before January 1, 2017. Meanwhile, Minsk reached a deal with Chinese to build an industrial park with tax concessions for as many as 50 years.

Minsk to continue bargaining with EU

Lukashenka told Martynau on May 24 that he waited for specific steps by the EU to improve bilateral relations.

“The ball is in their court now, this is my firm conviction. That's why I'm not going to wait again for this play using the old instruments and the old sheet music,” the presidential press office quoted Lukashenka as saying.

The Belarusian leader referred to “statements that European diplomats here are waiting for some amnesty, raising the subject of political prisoners again and so on.” “I want to say publicly that I will not revisit the subject any more. I have already said everything in public, in my address to the Belarusian nation and legislature. I see no grounds at present to change my position.”

Although Lukashenka sounds as if he has adopted a tough line, he may compromise. The EU announced its demand for the release of jailed opposition activists long ago and is unlikely to drop it.

The Belarusian leader may pardon some prisoners as part of an amnesty program on the occasion of Independence Day, July 3. Putin’s intransigence during talks in Minsk may prompt the Belarusian authorities to release the imprisoned opponents sooner.

Loking to Asia and South America

Mr. Martynau said that the foreign ministry continued pursuing a “multi-vectoral” foreign policy and the “coming weeks and months will be a good demonstration of this multi-vectoral approach characteristic of Belarus.”

He might have been referring to further efforts to boost ties with Asian and South American nations. For Belarus, it usually means that ties with Russia and the West leave to be desired.

Lukashenka plans to tour Asia and South America to look for new markets, investors and creditors. His trips to these continents received heavy coverage in Belarus’ state-controlled media, but their real efficiency was low.

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