The chances for release are “very small.”
Human rights defenders have expressed doubt that Aliaksandr Lukashenka will grant a pardon to political prisoners during the coming amnesty campaign.
The chances are very small, rights groups called Viasna [Spring].
Almost all political prisoners are formally repeat offenders who have failed to step on "the path of reformation,” which makes them ineligible for an amnesty in accordance with the letter of the law, said Mr. Stefanovich of Viasna.
Former presidential candidate Mikalaj Statkievich and businessman Mikalaj Autukhovich, for instance, have a history of violations of prison rules, while Mikalaj Dziadok is now kept in a lock-up after being accused of some obscure offenses, Eduard Lobaw also has a poor record as a prisoner and three more men who are broadly considered to be political prisoners have been convicted for attacks on buildings in Minsk, which is a serious crime, said Mr. Stefanovich.
As for Viasna leader Alies Bialiacki serving a prison sentence on a charge of tax evasion, Mr. Stefanovich said that the activist had not yet repaid a late charge as ordered by court in the spring. “The decision has not yet taken effect as Bialiacki’s appeal against it has not been examined, but it will hardly affect decision-making in his case,” said Mr. Stefanovich.
“Only Paviel Sieviaryniec may, perhaps, be released, because he has already served more than half of his sentence in an open-type facility,” he noted.
Hary Pahaniajla, a legal expert at the Belarusian Helsinki Committee, said that he did not even hope that Mr. Seviaryniec would be released.
“The thing is that high-profile political prisoners such as Dashkievich, Seviaryniec, Autukhovich and Statkievich have previous convictions and were a kind of amnestied before,” said Mr. Pahaniajla.
“Since they are already ‘old offenders,’ they may not be granted an amnesty once again. As for first-time convicts, the most what they can get is a one-year reduction in their sentences provided that they have no history of violations of prison rules. I am speaking of the convicted anarchists in the first place.”
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