How the US and Israel located Ayatollah Khamenei

Ali Khamenei. Photo: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP, File

This happened because the US and Israel decided to take advantage of crucial intelligence obtained just hours earlier.

For months, they had been waiting for a moment when high-ranking Iranian officials might gather for a meeting, and they determined that Khamenei would be at a compound in central Tehran on Saturday morning.

They also knew the location of other senior Iranian military and intelligence officials who were holding a meeting at the same time.

For months, the US and Israel tracked the movements of Iran's supreme leader. The exact methods used remain classified, although US President Donald Trump indirectly hinted at them in a social media post.

"He failed to escape our intelligence and high-tech surveillance systems," Trump stated.

Information about Khamenei's whereabouts could have come from an agent on the ground, but it is more likely that the Ayatollah was pinpointed by tracking the movements of other Iranian figures using advanced technology.

During a 12-day war last June, Israel attacked scientists and officials linked to Iran's nuclear program and reportedly used the hacking of telecommunications and mobile phone systems to track the movements of individuals.

In several instances, this included tracking the movements of bodyguards accompanying key officials.

In the long term, this allowed for the formation of "patterns" of the leader's daily life and the identification of moments of vulnerability: who he meets with and how often, where he prefers to hold such meetings.

Iran knew that the supreme leader was in the sights of his adversaries, so the failure to detect and eliminate these vulnerabilities for several months indicates either a profound failure of the Iranian security and counter-intelligence system, or the ability of Israel and the US to adapt their methods, finding new ways of observation.

Iranian authorities may also have assumed that an attack in broad daylight was less likely.

In this case, as The New York Times writes, the intelligence came from an external source — the CIA — but was passed to Israel to carry out the direct strike.

Signs point to a division of labor: Israel focused on striking targets related to Iran's leadership, while the US focused on military facilities.

Crucially, intelligence provided sufficient advance warning of the movements of the supreme leader and other officials, allowing for the planning of an attack using fighter jets capable of launching long-range missiles.

Instead of a single strike capable of decapitating the enemy, the plan envisioned this attack as the beginning of a broader campaign; it was moved to an earlier date to take advantage of a favorable window of opportunity.

Israeli fighter jets take about two hours to reach Tehran, but it remains unclear from what exact distance they launched their munitions.

Reportedly, after the decision was made, Israeli fighter jets launched 30 powerful bombs at the compound at approximately 9:40 AM local time.

This may have been due to the supreme leader continuing to use an underground bunker beneath the compound for his protection (although, reportedly, it was not one of the deepest bunkers available to the regime).

To guarantee hitting the target, multiple munitions may have been required.

Other facilities in the Iranian capital were also hit, including the office of President Masoud Pezeshkian, who later reported that he was safe.

Iran confirmed the deaths of three high-ranking Ministry of Defense officials, including Defense Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani, Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander General Mohammad Pakpour.

When the planes struck, it was night at President Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, where he, along with several high-ranking officials, was monitoring developments.

Several hours passed before it was officially confirmed that Iran's supreme leader had been killed.

Tehran, however, had been preparing for such developments. There were reports that succession plans — not only for Khamenei but also for a host of other high-ranking officials — had already been drawn up.

All this indicates that it remains unclear how Khamenei's assassination will affect the further course of this conflict.

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