Opinion8989

Putin, Russia's Future and Belarus' Future

Belarus will remain a poor appendix of Russia as long as it is a Russian vassal. By Andrej Dynko.

Brezhnev was a drunkard. He is not. He is not as sick as Andropov. He is not as paranoid as Stalin.

Unlike Khrushchev, he is not a simpleton. Unlike Chernenko, he is not old. Unlike Gorbachev, he is not a reformer. Unlike Yeltsin he is not a democrat. He is not a dummy: he knows economics and security. He is hardworking and disciplined.

He is the best choice for advocates of nationalistic and strong hand policy.

He was lucky. Fossil fuel prices skyrocketed, and oil and gas provide the lion’s share of Russia’s income. All factors crossed.

But what’s in the end?

Russia’s GDP may grow only 3% this year. Not so much when oil costs $100 for a barrel, and it is the only source of GDP growth.

Russia’s population has been decreasing throughout all Putin’s terms. Despite the fact that guest workers from poor countries are flooding Russia. While those countries sometimes intentionally have been made poor by jacked up gas prices.

There is nothing to say about Russian infrastructure — just see it once.

Capital is leaving Russia. Successful Russian businesspersons don’t want to live in Rostov. They would rather buy a house in Florida.

Newly elected Putin has a problem: he has no one to blame.
He’s been ruling for 12 years (Lukashenka already 18, and his situation is the same). Before, communists, the USSR dissolution, Yeltsin was to blame. Now even the West can’t be blamed because of independent policy (Belarus try to blame visa sanctions. Ridiculous.).

In spite of Putin’s being a strong politician, he failed to bring positive changes.

He is still popular because selling oil and gas makes it possible to increase salaries. But the model that embraces numerous features of Soviet and even pre-Soviet systems is constantly undermining this resource rich country.

It has clear economic reasons.

Democracy is the most economical system. Putin refused to make Russia European-like country, while authoritarianism is expensive.

Putin refused to set Caucasian nations free. Now he has to buy their loyalty.

Putin sees preserving the empire (even in its “softer” form) as a strategic goal. It costs him around $7bn to fund Lukashenka’s regime alone.

And there are other ”Lukashenkas” around, sponsored by Kremlin. This money could be used to renew the roads and pay for fools’ vacation (here a famous Gogol's joke that Russia has two major problems: fools and [bad quality] roads is meant — translator).

Most of all Putin’s 12 years showed that Russia need further market reforms, it needs the spirit of competition and creativity, common for the western society.

Russian elites are aware of this. However, they cynically preserve the system because it allows to enrich them much easier. Berezovsky and Khodorkovsky were proscribed to please the public. But dozens of people like them are still roll in oil money. Putin’s friends are among them.

There are no reasons to think that the principles of Russian-Belarusian relations will change during Putin’s third term.

A fundamental problem remains. Belarus will remain a poorer, albeit industrial appendix of Russia as long as it is a Russian vassal.

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