What Is Putin's Plan for Belarus?

“Belarus is not Europe’s periphery. It is its gateway to EuroAsia, the key to practical implementation of the idea of universal integration. Bringing together the European and Eurasian potentials will unlock new opportunities for dynamic development and all-round cooperation between countries and nations of the two continents. It is in promoting this idea that we see a critical mission and the geopolitical role of our state as a linking bridge,” said Aliaksandr Lukashenka during his visit to Polack, Viciebsk region.

A new foreign policy direction is vivid from his statement. There is nothing about Belarus–Russia relations’ extraordinary role.

Belarus wants to balance its dependence on Russia with European economic interests. However, Belarus doesn’t make decisions neither within the Eurasian Union, nor within the Custom Union. The example is automobiles duties that were increased under Russia’s pressure.

The neighboring countries chose the way of nation building, democracy and private property. They formed the European union — the union of equal states — to protect their sovereignty.

Yet, analysts augur a different future for Belarus. The upcoming Putin’s visit to Belarus is to start on May 31. This visit will be the first official visit of newly reelected Putin.

Andrej Suzdalcau, a political scientist and persona non grata in Belarus, sarcastically commented that “Belarus was honored with droit du seigneur.”

Analyst Aliaksandr Klaskouski said that Putin by his visit “clashes two vassals”: Belarus and Kazakhstan.

It is interesting to note that Russian president hasn’t visited Belarus since 2009, when Dmitry Medvedev participated in EurAsEc forum and before this he attended the beginning of the Great Patriotic War commemoration ceremony in Brest.

Vladimir Putin’s visits to Belarus were much more frequent during his presidentship as well as his PM term.

Lukashenka also highlighted that it is easier for him to speak with Putin than with Medvedev.

The parties set the priority agendas on the eve.

Lukashenka wants to discuss potassium export and intends to start exporting phosphorus and nitrogen. Putin, in his turn, is eager to talk on EurAsEc parliament creation.

It is unlikely that the talk will encompass only the two issues. Belarus still fails to receive EurAsEc Anti-Crisis Fund loan and Russia still can’t privatize some of the promised enterprises.

State-owned mass media do not praise EurAsEc integration too actively.

By the way, to make Putin’s visit less stressful, the activists of opposition organization Youth Front were jailed. As one of the activists reported, a KGB officer told him that “you’ll be jailed until Putin leaves.”

The head of pro-Lukashenka analytic agency ECOOM Siarhiej Musijenka does not know Putin’s plan for Belarus.

“I would like to know it!” said Mr. Musijenka.

“It’s been twenty years of talks about Russia’s annexation of Belarus. Yet, nothing changed. Help us God it remained the same.

“Surely, there were chauvinistic views on Belarus independence in Russia at first. However, the great progress has been made: now we are heard and we are — even if not as an equal party — engaged in talks.”

Aliaksandr Klaskouski is sure the upcoming talks are going to be tough ones.

“Putin is going to oppress and Lukashenka intends to minimize his losses.”

Mr. Klaskouski considers Putin to insist on fulfilling of every point of the contract.

“The auditor is to com, saying in other words.

“Everyone here had a slight euphoria after Luakshenka’s visits to Moscow: they brought subsidies and benefits. Putin may make this euphoria disappear.”

Mr. Klaskouski stresses that Belarus–EU relations depend on this visit. Belarus will activate its dialogue with Brussels in case of a fail. The political prisoners may also be released.

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