Moscow's perception of Trump has changed, talk of treachery and unreliability has begun

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15, 2025. Photo: AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson

Trenin begins his article by analyzing the transformation of Donald Trump's policy. He reminds that at the beginning of his second term, Trump spoke of his mission "to make America great again," of rejecting liberal globalism in favor of pragmatism, "from defending and promoting the interests of the American empire to turning towards his own country and its problems." Such a policy, in the expert's view, also included "recognizing the diversity of the world and the presence of several great powers with which the US must negotiate."

"The start of his new term was vigorous," says Trenin, implying that Trump's steps gave Russia hope for a redivision of the world into spheres of influence. He recalls the restoration of Washington's contacts with the Kremlin and the development of an understanding regarding ways to resolve the Ukrainian crisis ("Spirit of Anchorage"). However, this success proved short-lived, as the author argues, the settlement process quickly stalled due to resistance from European allies and the American establishment.

As a result, even limited steps to improve relations between the US and Russia did not happen, and sanctions pressure on the Russian energy sector only intensified.

Washington ignored proposals to preserve the New START Treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), which expired earlier this year, finally destroying the nuclear security system.

At the same time, as Trenin emphasizes, US foreign policy became even more abrupt and forceful. Evidence of this includes the operation in Venezuela, strikes on Iran, and talk of "regime change" in other countries.

"In fact, instead of the outdated hegemony of the collective West, built on liberal-globalist principles, Trump is now trying to establish a sole global hegemony of the US, but already on a purely power basis. (...)

The state that was 'falling asleep' under Biden-'Chernenko' has gone on the counter-offensive under Trump. Washington's goal is not so much to establish a new world order as to generate global chaos to dominate in it," the Russian expert asserts.

What to do?

Answering the question "What should we do?", Trenin argues that such a policy by Washington "objectively makes the United States a geopolitical and potentially military adversary of Russia." He emphasizes that even after Trump's return to the White House, Washington has not ceased to be Moscow's adversary in the Ukrainian conflict.

"This does not mean that an attack on Russia will necessarily follow the attack on Iran, but strategically, the aspirations of the Trump administration are leading the US to a confrontation with our country," the expert argues.

"It is the right and duty of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to decide how to continue the special diplomatic operation (dialogue with Trump)," Trenin notes, observing that this dialogue has already brought certain results: it helped to partially distance Trump from the Ukrainian conflict, strengthen disagreements between the US and Europe, and present Russia as a country that "strives for lasting peace."

Павялічыць

Negotiations in Anchorage. August 15, 2025. Photo: AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson

However, the expert assesses the prospects of diplomacy skeptically, believing that the Ukrainian president is "completely and hopelessly inadequate," "Europe is preparing to fight Russia," and Trump himself may weaken after the congressional elections in November and the unsuccessful development of the Iranian campaign.

Trenin specifically warns about Trump's unreliability as a partner. As an example, he cites the US behavior towards Iran in 2025 and 2026, which he calls "treachery."

"The situation is made even more piquant by the fact that the American negotiators on the Russian-Ukrainian and Iranian fronts are the same people, maximally close to the head of the White House. Trump is literally the master of his word, in other words - an unreliable partner. This does not mean that one cannot communicate with him; it simply means that believing him (or his signature) is not at all necessary," the expert instructs and continues to escalate:

"One should also not forget for a moment that the real American military doctrine sets the task of neutralizing (decapitating – in the literal sense) the supreme leadership of an adversary state at the very beginning of a conflict. Russia's security guarantees – including on the Ukrainian front – can be ensured primarily by Russia's own military means. Here we will have to rely only on ourselves."

In the expert's view, Russian-American relations will be very limited in the near future. He notes that the era of strategic arms control has effectively ended, and "strategic stability in the world has critically weakened."

"A rethinking of the situation in a multipolar nuclear world is required, and first of all, the development of new models of deterrence and stability jointly with Russia's Asian partners – China, India, Pakistan, North Korea. With Washington, it is necessary to be in constant contact to exclude dangerous misunderstandings in crisis situations, but negotiations and even consultations conducted in old forms have finally lost their relevance," Trenin writes.

In his opinion, the wars between the US and Israel against Iran have dealt a severe blow to the nuclear non-proliferation system, which "today more than ever serves as the only real guarantee against attack from the US." At the same time, "Washington's de facto renunciation of nuclear security guarantees to its allies in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East pushes these allies to create their own nuclear arsenals or expand existing ones."

Павялічыць

Press conference of Trump and Putin after talks in Anchorage. August 15, 2025. Illustrative photo. Photo: AP Photo/Jae C. Hong

What about the economy?

In the economic sphere, Trenin also does not foresee a quick improvement in relations. Although the potential for cooperation between Russia and the US is theoretically large, he believes it is unlikely in practice.

"Anti-Russian sanctions are 'serious and long-term.' Most of them are introduced by US laws – these sanctions cannot be reviewed by the president. Most currently living Russian citizens will not see either the abolition or even a significant weakening of these restrictions. It makes sense for us to accept the current state of affairs as a long-term reality and build our geo-economic strategy with an emphasis on internal development and relations with non-Western partners."

Trenin emphasizes that cooperation between Moscow and Washington on regional issues has effectively turned into confrontation. He cites examples of Venezuela, Iran (calling this country "Russia's strategic partner"), Cuba, North Korea, and China ("Russia's main international partner").

"In all the listed areas, it is in our interest to strengthen relations with partners and allies who are subject to pressure and threats from the US. Their resistance can slow down or stop Trump's counter-offensive. America itself will never stop," Trenin concludes his analysis.

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