Pahonia, Litvinism and Migration: How Lithuanians See Belarusians and Belarus
Lithuanian society simultaneously feels both sympathy and caution towards Belarusians. A new study, presented by Andrey Kazakevich, director of the "Political Sphere" Institute, at a conference on March 20 in Vilnius, reflects how Lithuanians currently perceive Belarusians, the Belarusian state, and related risks, writes "Belsat".
Flags of Belarus, Lithuania and the European Union. Vilnius, March 20, 2026. Photo: "Belsat"
The study "Belarus and Belarusians in the Eyes of Lithuanian Residents: Measuring Sympathy and Threat" was conducted by the "Political Sphere" Institute in partnership with Spinter tyrimai and Vytautas Magnus University. The survey took place in January and February 2026, involving 1017 residents of Lithuania aged 18 to 75.
Almost Equal: Lithuanians Divided in Their Assessment of Belarusians
According to the study, overall 37.2% of Lithuanians positively evaluate citizens of Belarus — both those living in Belarus itself and those living in Lithuania. A negative attitude was expressed by 36.6%, while another 26.3% could not decide.
Doctor of Political Sciences Andrey Kazakevich. Vilnius, March 20, 2026. Photo: "Belsat"
"The view on Belarusians in Lithuania is cautiously pragmatic," noted Andrey Kazakevich.
Lithuanian residents survey data. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
However, the situation changes when it comes to Belarusians already living in Lithuania. In this case, 41.9% evaluate them positively, while 30.9% evaluate them negatively.
Lithuanian residents survey data. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
Lithuanians' attitude towards Belarusians also clearly depends on the level of education.
According to the study, among people with higher education, a negative attitude prevails (—8.3%). At the same time, in the group with secondary education, there is already a positive balance (+4.8%), and among people with incomplete secondary education — the most positive attitude (+13.5%).
Education level influences Lithuanians' attitude towards Belarusians. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
A similar trend is observed depending on income level: the most positive perception is in groups with low and medium incomes (from +1.3% to +7.5%), while among more affluent respondents, negativity prevails (—12.1% and —9.6%).
Attitude towards Belarusians in Lithuania also differs depending on income level. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
The age factor also significantly influences how Lithuanians perceive Belarusians.
According to the study, the most critically minded group is people aged 26-35: negative assessments clearly prevail among them (—19.9%). A negative balance is also observed in the 36-45 age group (—4.1%).
At the same time, among youth aged 18-25 and older age groups, a positive attitude prevails: +8.4% among younger individuals, +9.9% in the 46-55 group, and +8.1% among people aged 56 and older.
Attitude towards Belarusians depending on age. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
As Andrey Kazakevich noted, this can be explained not only by age itself but also by the level of engagement in the information field.
"Younger people read mainstream media less and are less engaged in political information flows. We see that the main negativity is concentrated among more educated people, intellectuals, and residents of large cities," he noted.
At the same time, he said, the question remains whether young people will maintain a more positive perception with age.
"If this hypothesis is correct, then everything will depend on whether they enter these information flows," Kazakevich added.
Andrey Kazakevich. Vilnius, March 20, 2026. Photo: "Belsat"
Similar studies were also conducted in Ukraine and Latvia, allowing for a comparison of results. While in Latvia the attitude towards Belarusians is more positive (48.6% versus 26.5% negative assessments), in Ukraine, on the contrary, negativity clearly prevails (50.4% versus 35.6% positive).
Comparison of attitudes towards Belarusians in Lithuania, Latvia, and Ukraine. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
2020, Security, and Contacts
The study separately shows how Lithuanians assess the events of 2020 and the presence of Belarusians in the country. Almost half of those surveyed (49.9%) positively evaluate the decision to accept Belarusians who were forced to leave the country after the protests, 27.1% negatively, and another 23.0% were undecided.
Despite a relatively positive perception, a part of society still sees Belarusians as a potential threat. Every fourth person believes that Belarusians can pose a threat to national security, although almost half disagree. A significant portion of respondents do not have a clear position.
Opinion of Lithuanian residents on whether Belarusians pose a threat to national security. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
It is also indicative that only 12.4% of Lithuanians have maintained contact with Belarusians in the last year, while 87.6% have no such experience.
Presence of personal contacts with Belarusians among Lithuanian residents. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
For comparison, in Latvia, this indicator is higher — 22.5% noted having contacts with Belarusians, while in Ukraine it is lower: only 7.3%.
Survey data: contacts with Belarusians in Lithuania, Latvia, and Ukraine. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
Migration: Cautious Pragmatism
The attitude towards labor migration from Belarus is also ambiguous. The most common position is to allow migration under the same conditions as from other non-EU countries (37.3%). At the same time, 26.8% advocate for reducing the number of Belarusian labor migrants, and another 18.1% for stopping further migration without reducing the existing one.
How Lithuania and Latvia view the regulation of labor migration from Belarus. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
For comparison – in Latvia, there is a similar structure of answers, however, support for a "neutral" approach is lower (30.5%), and the proportion of those who are undecided is higher (20.4% versus 13.9% in Lithuania).
The idea of actively encouraging migration is supported by a small fraction of respondents in both countries — 3.9% in Lithuania and 6.6% in Latvia.
During the presentation. Vilnius, March 20, 2026. Photo: "Belsat"
Belarus: Authoritarianism and Dependence on Russia
The perception of the Belarusian state in Lithuanian society is much more unambiguous than the attitude towards Belarusians as people.
"When we analyze the results of this survey, we see such a dual effect: there is a difference between the attitude towards Belarusians and towards the Belarusian state. Belarusians as people evoke greater sympathy, especially when it is related to personal contacts. At the same time, Belarus as a state is perceived much more critically," noted Kazakevich.
62.7% of Lithuanians believe that Alexander Lukashenka is not the legitimate leader of Belarus. Only 19.4% disagree with this, and another 17.9% were undecided.
Opinion of Lithuanian residents on the legitimacy of Alexander Lukashenka. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
The majority also perceives Belarus as a state dependent on Russia. 62.0% of respondents consider it dependent, while 23.8% consider it independent.
To clarify, 33.9% consider Belarus virtually controlled by Russia, and another 28.1% consider it dependent, with its foreign policy almost entirely determined by Moscow. Only 6.1% view Belarus as completely independent in its foreign policy.
Opinion of Lithuanian residents on Belarus's independence. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
A similar perception exists in the assessment of the political regime: 54.0% consider Belarus an authoritarian state, and another 21.9% — rather authoritarian than democratic. The proportion of those who see democracy in the country remains minimal — 2.6%.
Similar assessments are observed in other countries in the region: in Latvia, 45.9% consider Belarus an authoritarian state, in Ukraine — 58.3%.
The researchers also asked what Lithuania's policy regarding Belarus should be.
Andrey Kazakevich. Vilnius, March 20, 2026. Photo: "Belsat"
In Lithuania, the most common position is not to develop active cooperation, but to maintain relations with Belarusian authorities in areas of economic interest (39.9%). Another 30.0% advocate for a policy of isolation and sanctions. Full-scale cooperation is supported by 13.2%, and 16.9% are undecided.
Approaches to policy towards Belarus in Lithuania and Latvia. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
For comparison — in Latvia, a stricter policy has more support: 34.9% advocate for isolation and sanctions. At the same time, fewer than in Lithuania support an "intermediate" approach (29.4%). The idea of full cooperation in Latvia is supported by 21.6% — noticeably more than in Lithuania.
"Litvinism", Pahonia and Knowledge of Belarusian Culture
The study also touched upon the topic of "Litvinism," which has been actively discussed in Lithuania in recent years. 29.0% of respondents had heard about these discussions, while 54.8% had not, and another 16.2% could not answer. As Andrey Kazakevich noted, only a minority of Lithuanian society is aware of the discussions around "Litvinism."
Level of awareness in Lithuania about discussions around "Litvinism". Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
The attitude towards the use of the "Pahonia" coat of arms as a state symbol of Belarus is divided: 32.1% evaluate this possibility negatively, and another 15.0% — rather negatively. At the same time, 15.9% have a rather positive attitude, and 3.4% — a positive one. For 16.4%, it doesn't matter, and 17.1% are undecided.
Attitude in Lithuania towards the possibility of returning Pahonia as a state symbol of Belarus. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
Regarding the legacy of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the most common position is that it belongs to all peoples who lived there (34.4%). A quarter of respondents (25.8%) consider it exclusively Lithuanian, and only 3.6% — common to Lithuanians and Belarusians.
The level of knowledge of Belarusian culture remains low: 52.6% of respondents could not name a single Belarusian figure. The most well-known are Kastus Kalinouski (25.8%), Yanka Kupala (25.2%), and Francysk Skaryna (20.9%).
The level of knowledge of Belarusian culture also differs depending on age. As the data show, the most famous Belarusian figures — Francysk Skaryna, Kastus Kalinouski, and Yanka Kupala — are named significantly more often by older respondents. For example, in the group aged 56 and older, Skaryna is known to 36.5%, Kupala to 48.6%, Kalinouski to 41.0%, while among youth aged 18-25, these figures are noticeably lower.
Knowledge of Belarusian cultural figures among Lithuanian residents. Screenshot from the presentation of the joint study by the "Political Sphere" Institute, Spinter tyrimai, and Vytautas Magnus University, 2026. Illustration: "Belsat"
As Andrey Kazakevich noted, overall, knowledge of Belarusian culture in Lithuanian society remains limited. According to him, the most famous Belarusian figures are better recognized by older generations, which is likely associated with education and the influence of Soviet cultural heritage.
As of March 1, 2026, there were 49,778 Belarusian citizens with valid residence permits in Lithuania. Compared to early March 2024, their number decreased by almost 21% — from 62,811. After peaking in April 2024, the number of Belarusians in the country is gradually decreasing.
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