Institute for the Study of War Employee Edited Combat Map. Someone Made $1.3 Million From It

Adjusted map of military operations in Myrnohrad. Photo: 0xinternetchild /X

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) regularly publishes reports on the situation in Ukraine, assessments from military analysts, and detailed maps of current frontlines. These maps are based on analysis of publicly available information (open-source intelligence or OSINT), satellite imagery, government data, and frontline reports from social media. On its website, the analytical center states that its assessments of current frontlines are used by leading international media, political figures, intelligence officials, and military personnel.

However, the high degree of trust in this data has led to the institute's maps being used in a field far removed from professional military analysis. The New York-based, cryptocurrency-powered betting platform Polymarket is a prediction market where users can wager money on the outcome of events from virtually any domain — from celebrity divorces and elections to natural disasters and military actions. Because of this, the platform regularly draws criticism for "gamifying world events."

It was at the intersection of these two spheres — serious expertise and gambling — that a scandal erupted, the details of which were revealed by journalists from 404media.

On November 15, when Russian troops were on the outskirts of Myrnohrad (Donetsk region), a betting market was opened on the Polymarket platform for the capture of the city by the end of the day.

According to the platform's terms, Myrnohrad would be considered captured by Moscow as soon as Russian forces, according to the current ISW frontline map, occupied the intersection between Vatutina and Pugachova streets. If this intersection is marked red on the map, it signifies Russian control.

The total volume of bets amounted to approximately $1.3 million. According to expert estimates, the probability of the city's complete capture within a few hours was close to zero, allowing risky players to expect payouts of up to 33,000% of their bet.

Павялічыць

Bet on Russia taking Myrnohrad. Photo: responsiblestatecraft.org

On the night of November 15-16, the intersection of the aforementioned streets on the ISW map was suddenly marked red, although there was no real evidence of troop movement. This was enough for Polymarket to instantly declare the bet a winner. However, immediately after the payout, the red color on the ISW map mysteriously disappeared, and the frontline returned to its previous position. This confirmed that there had been no actual troop advancement in that quarter.

ISW management acknowledged the fact of an "unauthorized and unapproved" edit. According to the official statement, the correction was removed on the morning of November 16, even before the start of the main work process. The institute issued an official apology. According to information from Responsible Statecraft, immediately thereafter, one of the geospatial researchers was removed from the official list of daily map authors and, according to the publication's sources, was fired.

In its statement, ISW emphasized that it categorically opposes the use of its analysis for gambling but refused to confirm an internal investigation or name the fired employee. The described incident calls into question not only the ethics of betting on military conflicts but also the accuracy of expert information, which is becoming a tool for financial speculation.

It should be added that the bet on the capture of Myrnohrad by Russian troops is still available online and offers three deadlines for complete conquest: by December 31 of this year or by January 15 or 31 of next year. However, after the recent scandal, Polymarket was forced to clarify its rules: now the city will only be considered captured if the corresponding mark on the ISW map remains throughout the entire next full cycle of daily updates.

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