"Cut off one head - new ones grow." How Iran's leadership built a system that allows it to retain power

Photo: Morteza Nikoubazl / NurPhoto via Getty Images

"A Hydra-like structure"

After the overthrow of the monarchy in Iran, the Islamic Republic gradually built a political system designed to withstand serious shocks, experts say.

It combines tightly controlled state institutions, ideological indoctrination, elite cohesion, and a fragmented opposition.

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Photo: Morteza Nikoubazl / NurPhoto via Getty Images

"It's a Hydra-like structure: cut off one head, and new ones grow," says Sébastien Boussois, a Middle East researcher at the European Geopolitical Institute in Belgium.

On Sunday, Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba Khamenei was chosen as his successor — this happened less than two weeks after his father's death. He is expected to continue the strict political course of the previous supreme leader.

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"Polydictatorship"

As experts note, unlike other countries in the region, such as Tunisia, Egypt, and Syria, where rulers were overthrown, Iran has proven more resistant to external shocks thanks to its ideologically motivated system of security structures.

Instead of a typical dictatorship centered around one leader, Iran operates a kind of "polydictatorship" — "an alliance of political Islam adherents and hardline Iranian nationalism," says Bernard Hourcade, former director of the French Institute for Iranian Studies in Tehran.

Power is distributed among several centers — religious bodies, armed forces, and large sectors of the economy. Because of this, the system is much harder to overthrow than a dictatorship centered on a single leader.

Among the influential bodies is also the Guardian Council of the Constitution, which can block legislation and vet candidates in elections. This further reduces the likelihood that any one group can seriously challenge the state.

Although Iran is considered an authoritarian state, citizens are granted a largely symbolic opportunity to vote in some elections, including presidential elections. But this process is tightly controlled: candidates are vetted by the Guardian Council, including blocking those who, in its opinion, are not sufficiently loyal to the Islamic Republic.

The Central Role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

If state institutions form the "skeleton" of the regime, then the security structures are considered its muscles. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which operates parallel to the regular army, is called "the main pillar of the regime," says Hourcade.

It not only carries out military tasks but is also a powerful political and economic force with extensive business interests and influence through the voluntary paramilitary organization "Basij."

A decisive factor has been the preservation of unity among the security forces during numerous protests in the past. Boussois attributes this loyalty to ideology. "The culture of martyrdom, which we see among Shiites, as well as in groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, is almost considered part of service," he says.

Recently, Iran's Deputy Defense Minister Reza Talaei-Nik stated in a television interview that successors for each IRGC commander are predetermined three levels down the command hierarchy to ensure continuity of leadership.

Expert Kasra Aarabi believes that the lessons from Iraq's collapse in 2003 helped in the creation of a decentralized power structure in Iran.

In his opinion, if the regime survives, "the role of the IRGC will become even more important."

Patronage System and Elite Cohesion

A significant part of Iran's economy is controlled by state-affiliated organizations, such as charitable foundations ("bonyads"). Over time, they have evolved into entities that own thousands of companies across various economic sectors. These structures distribute jobs and contracts among groups loyal to the regime.

The IRGC's business empire, including the "Khatam al-Anbiya" conglomerate, reinforces this system of "patronage." Although Western sanctions have severely hit Iran's economy, such structures help protect the elites and maintain their vested interest in the system's survival.

According to Boussois, this system is "so robust that we hardly see defections."

Ideology and the Legacy of the Revolution

Religion also plays an important role. The revolution created a strong network of religious, political, and educational institutions. "It's a very old, very powerful structure — ideological, bureaucratic, administrative — that makes the system strong," says Boussois.

He argues that ideology acts as a real source of unity and personnel selection.

Fragmented Opposition

Historically, the Iranian opposition remains divided. It includes reformers, monarchists, left-wing groups, diaspora movements, and various ethnic organizations.

Ellie Geranmayeh from the European Council on Foreign Relations notes that this fragmentation has existed for a long time, and moderate groups have been sidelined or discredited in various ways.

Despite a series of protests (2009, 2022), they lacked unified leadership.

Furthermore, Iran operates one of the most developed population surveillance systems in the region: authorities regularly shut down the internet, use AI-based monitoring systems, and cyber units to track activists abroad.

Public Caution

For many years, Iranians hesitated to demand regime change, observing the consequences of US interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq. However, according to Geranmayeh, this viewpoint is changing: people believe that the state is no longer able to provide basic needs and increasingly uses brute force. The brutal suppression of protests in January, when thousands of demonstrators were killed, only intensified these sentiments.

Every Regime Eventually Comes to an End

Analysts note that authoritarian regimes usually end when three conditions coincide: mass mobilization, elite division, and security forces defecting to the opposition. In Iran, only the first factor has been observed so far.

Hourcade believes that the end of the Islamic Republic is inevitable, but not imminent. Khamenei's death was a serious blow, as his successor is unlikely to command the same authority.

However, Boussois is convinced that the fall of the Islamic Republic is far from guaranteed.

According to him, if it does happen and is caused by foreign military intervention, the consequences could be even worse.

Earlier, Donald Trump told the New York Times that an "ideal scenario" for Iran would be for events to unfold like in Venezuela, whose president Nicolas Maduro was captured by American troops.

But Boussois warns: "The opposite could happen — as in North Korea or Cuba — a strengthening of the regime's hard core."

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