In a new episode of TOK, Viktar Babaryka reflected on the connection between the results of the 2020 protests in Belarus and Russia's military aggression in 2022.
Viktar Babaryka. Photo: "Nasha Niva"
When asked whether he would have been able to prevent the use of Belarusian territory for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, had he won the 2020 elections, Babaryka replied:
"Perhaps I attribute too much to Belarus, but I believe that if we had won, there would have been no war. It simply wouldn't have happened."
According to him, after the events of 2020, Russia needed an external enemy to maintain power within the country. Belarus, in his opinion, showed an example dangerous for the Kremlin: even calm and tolerant people can massively oppose the authorities. This, Babaryka believes, looked like a serious threat to the Russian regime.
"Russia can only hold on and unite in the presence of an external enemy. Russia definitely cannot be defeated when there is an external enemy. So, in fact, that's why I believe that the year 2020 was a reason, one of the reasons, which, in fact, led to the year 2022. Therefore, if we had won, there simply would have been no war," the politician argues.
At the same time, Babaryka suggests that in 2020, Russia was unlikely to have already been planning a war. At that moment, in his opinion, the Kremlin did not yet have an acute need for an "external enemy," although protest sentiments were already growing within the country. An example of this, he believes, was the protest movement of 2018 during the presidential elections in Russia. However, according to Babaryka's assessment, "it wasn't that heated yet."
He notes that Russia's imperial ambitions were evident even earlier, but at that time they were more expressed in the desire to play a larger role in world politics. Partially, Babaryka believes, the West responded to this — for example, when Russia participated in the G8 format.
"All of that was there. But internally, I don't think there was a need for an external enemy. After 2020, it seems everyone understood that if all these [protest sentiments — NN] were allowed to run loose, a very big problem would arise internally. And since a problem would arise internally, it means attention needed to be diverted to an external enemy," the politician concludes.
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на тэрыторыю Крыма ваенную тэхніку і зброю для далейшага захопу паўднёвай часткі Украіны.
«Пасля 20-га года, падобна, усе разумелі, што калі гэта ўсё распусціць [пратэсныя настроі — НН], то ўнутры ўзнікне вельмі вялікая праблема. А раз унутры ўзнікне праблема, значыць, трэба адцягнуць увагу на знешняга ворага»
Значыць, калі б перамаглі, то Расея тым больш убачыла б праблему. Спужалася б яшчэ больш.
Я зараз не пра тое, што нібыта не трэба было нічога рабіць у 2020-м - шанцаў не было (для разумных заднім розумам). А пра тое, што вось гэтая канкрэтная думка Бабарыкі супярэчлівая, калі яе дадумаць.