WSJ described three scenarios for the development of events in Ukraine in 2026

Consequences of a strike on Odesa on January 27, 2026. Photo: Andrew Shugsun/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

However, rising tensions this year could weaken Kyiv's or Moscow's positions, forcing them to make a deal they are not yet ready for. The main points of WSJ are recounted by "Agency".

Scenario 1. Continuation of the war. The Kremlin remains confident that the Ukrainian army will break before the Russian economy, but Ukraine is still far from collapse, the publication states.

Both sides fear Trump's anger over the stalemate in negotiations. Ukraine still needs intelligence and other support from the US, and Russia is vulnerable to harsher sanctions. Therefore, each side seeks to show that it is acting constructively, and that the opponent is to blame for the continuation of the war.

For Ukrainian society and leadership, the transfer of unconquered territories to Russia remains one of the "red lines". "The idea of giving Donbas to the Russians looks like they would get territory for free, which they would otherwise probably have spent half a million more people to capture," said former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy resists pressure to hand over Donbas and states that any deal on territory depends on security guarantees, which would include European military bases in Ukraine and, crucially, support from the US.

There is "great skepticism" in Ukrainian society about US-led negotiations, Zagorodnyuk says. According to him, this is due to the fact that every military, industrial, and political event in Russia signals its intention to continue fighting.

Scenario 2. Ukraine surrenders first. The WSJ named the exhaustion of the AFU as the biggest risk for Kyiv. Dedicated soldiers have been fighting without rest for many years, and unenthusiastic recruits are increasingly deserting, the publication states. The AFU compensates for the lack of infantry by constantly improving its drone capabilities, but Russia has recently caught up with Ukraine in drone usage, writes the WSJ.

Military experts do not expect the situation on the battlefield to change this year. Russia's practically continuous offensive in Donbas since late 2023 has been one of the slowest and most expensive in military history. A sky filled with drones has made large-scale maneuvers virtually impossible.

If Ukraine exhausts its forces, it may have to agree to a deal that will be difficult to accept, but which will be better than the alternative, the publication states. This could involve satisfying Moscow's demands regarding territory, limiting Ukraine's military power, and restoring Russia's influence over life in the country, with the US providing only weak security guarantees, writes the WSJ.

Scenario 3. Russia tires out. The Russian economy is in stagnation, with many civilian sectors contracting. Low oil prices, Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries, and actions by the US and Europe against Russia's "shadow fleet" are pressuring the energy sector, on which the Kremlin's revenues depend.

Russia's business elite has long been dissatisfied with how the war is deforming the economy, making it overly dependent on military production, as well as on China, which supplies technology and buys oil, writes the WSJ. However, according to the publication, there are currently no signs that Putin is concerned about negative reactions from the elites or Russian society.

Nevertheless, Russia cannot wage war indefinitely. Harsher sanctions and their stricter enforcement could accelerate its conclusion, writes the WSJ.

If Russia or both sides conclude that they cannot continue the war, negotiations could turn into a more serious search for an agreement.

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