Why did Zelensky re-evaluate his attitude towards the Belarusian opposition? Analysis by Valer Karbalevich
For a long time, Kyiv was quite cautious about cooperation with the Belarusian opposition. But in recent days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has paid a lot of attention to Belarus in his speeches. He for the first time held negotiations with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, inviting her to visit Kyiv. What is happening, writes "Svaboda" columnist Valer Karbalevich.
Photo: OSTs (Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya)
It can be assumed that several factors converged here.
Firstly, personnel changes in Ukraine's governing bodies had an impact. The head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, resigned. His place was taken by Kyrylo Budanov, who until recently oversaw Kyiv's policy in the Belarusian direction and conducted informal negotiations with Belarusian officials. He met 114 Belarusian political prisoners at the border in December.
It is logical to conclude that his arrival at the head of the President's Office of Ukraine contributed to the adjustment of policy regarding Belarus.
But more important are the systemic changes that are pushing Kyiv towards new approaches to Belarus.
Perhaps Zelensky has become convinced that Lukashenka will not go beyond the current level of support for Russian aggression against Ukraine. Because Ukrainian drones proved to be very effective in knocking out Russian oil refineries. Moreover, they reach them even beyond the Urals. And in case something happens, two Belarusian refineries could be destroyed in one night.
Kyiv is not embarrassed that the policies of Ukraine and the US regarding Belarus are now moving in opposite directions. Washington is actively negotiating with official Minsk, partially lifting sanctions on Belarusian enterprises. And Kyiv is moving towards closer cooperation with the Belarusian opposition, which is hated by the regime in Minsk.
As the US increasingly distances itself from Europe and sharply reduced its support for Ukraine, Kyiv needs to play its own game, to be more independent.
And as the war approaches its end, the importance of Belarus's status for Ukraine's post-war geopolitical positioning and its security will only increase.
Democratic changes in Belarus would radically affect Ukraine's position in the post-war confrontation with Russia. In this logic, an alliance with the Belarusian opposition, the democratic community, is of great importance.
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